ECGA 6470: Economic growth and development               Spring 2010

 

Course Description    Requirements   Course Calendar

 

PhD texts:  

Agénor, Pierre-Richard (2004) Economics of Adjustment and Growth, 2nd ed (HUP)  0674015789

Barro, R. & J. Sala-i-Martin (2004) Economic Growth 2nd ed (MIT Press) 0262025531

 

Masters texts:

Jones, Charles I. (2001) Introduction to Economic Growth 2nd ed (W.W. Norton 0393977455)

Aghion, P and P. Howitt (2009) Economics of Growth (MIT Press, Boston)  0262012634   

 

Recommended (some required reading):

Aghion, P and P. Howitt (1998) Endogenous Growth (MIT Press, Boston) 0262011662

Barro, Robert J. (1998) Determinants of Economic Growth (MIT Press, Boston).

Lucas, R.E. (2002) Lectures on Economics Growth (Harvard Univ. Press)

Parente, S. and E. Prescott (2002) Barriers to Riches (paperback) MIT Press

Rodrik, Dani (2003) In Search of Prosperity (Princeton University Press) 0691092699

Romer, David (2005) Advanced Macroeconomics (chapters 1-3) 

 

Reference & background reading (click to full list below):

Aghion, P. & J.Williamson (1998) Growth, Inequality & Globalization, Cambridge

Bhalla, Surjit (2002) Imagine There’s No Country, www.IIE.com (0-88132-348-9)

Ros, Jaime (2000) Development Theory & Economic Growth (U of Michigan Press)

World Bank, (2000) The Quality of Growth (QOG)

World Bank (1993) The East Asian Miracle (Oxford U Press-- or “TEAM” )

Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 1997, Principles of Economic Growth (Oxford U Press, NY)

 

Course Description: Why do people living in some countries grow rich, while others remain poor? This course surveys the growth and development literature with an emphasis on long term growth. This year’s special theme is convergence, financial crises and long term growth.  The recent financial crisis hit rich countries much harder than poor countries, who kept growing overall, with the result of a closing of the gap in incomes between rich and poor.  China, Korea, India and Vietnam all managed to grow rapidly right through the recent crisis.  Even Argentina, Venezuela, Nigeria and the Philippines, historically problem growth countries, grew right through, albeit modestly, during the recent downturn.  Unlike the last two crises,  developing countries have been growing faster than OECD countries for some time now, reducing world inequality and poverty. The first part of the course explores key theories of economic growth and some empirical evidence on long term growth and convergence.  The second part of the course turns to growth strategies including the role of trade and capital market openness and/or trade promotion in facilitating growth. The recent growth booms in India and China were associated with both internal reforms and trade liberalization: which reforms were key to these growth miracles in the making. Finally, we turn to the political economy of growth, considering a number of recent arguments that make policy itself endogenous, stressing the role of institutions (property rights and legal systems), geography and natural resource endowments in shaping governance and therefore long term growth performance of many countries, especially in the Tropics

 

Requirements: The essay based final and midterm account for 40% and 30% of the course grade. A number of problem sets and a country case study contribute the remaining 30%. The case study also serves as a final exam question, it has references and data you gather, but it is not quite a formal paper.  After the midterm, a detailed case study description will be distributed.  To reduce the weight of midterm and to prepare for the final students are also encouraged to present a brief, optional power point summary of their case study to the class for discussion and comments.

Topics-Lectures:  Part I Development and Growth: Theory and Evidence

     Introduction: Globalization and Poverty Income Convergence or Divergence?

     Growth Models: Solow-Swan, AK-HD & R&D based Endogenous growth

     Endogenous Growth I: Population/human capital  Endogenous Growth II: Technical change

     Poverty Traps—industrialization   Empirical Evidence on convergence

 

Part II. Growth promoting Economic Policy

     Openness to Trade            Openness to Capital Flows

     Financial Development      Poverty/Inequality Reduction    

     Macroeconomic Stability   Geography, Institutions

 

Reading/Topics: *required readings: **high priority  Journal Acronyms

 

Problem Set #1A   Problem Set #2  Jones Appendix C Eviews file   Jones Appendix C Spreadsheet 

 

Three Growth Models handout   Barro’s AK Model with Government  

 

First week: read Jones Chapter 1-2 and Sachs et. al BPEA Ending Africa’s Poverty Trap pp. 121-31.

 

1.  Introduction: Growth Miracles and Poverty Traps

            Sachs et. al BPEA Ending Africa’s Poverty Trap pp. 121-31.

            Lucas, R.E. (2000) Macro for the 21st Century. JEP,14:1, Winter 2000 or Chapt 4 of .

            Jones 2nd ed. Chapter 1, Brad de Long (2000) Cornucopia      

            Agénor Chapter 10 pp. 411-30  *Barro & Sala-i-Martin Introduction and Chapter 1

            Lucas (2002) pp. 1-23 and pp. *251-253 “Making a Miracle

           

Case Study 1.1 Institutions vs. Geography: how rich countries became poor

            Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson and James Robinson (2006) Understanding Prosperity

and Poverty: Geography, Institutions and the Reversal of Fortune  NBER long version…

               Acemoglu, D. (2003)

     Rodrik, Dani  (2003) “The Primacy of Institutions”  IMF Finance & Development   40,2, IMF, June 2003

Sachs, Jeffery (2003)  Institutions Matter, but not for everything (same issue of F&D)

Edison, Hal (2003)

    

      Case Study 1.2 Is globalization good for the poor?

                Fischer, S.Globalization and its Challenges   AER, May 2004;

                Dollar & Kraay Spreading the Wealth  Foreign Affairs 

Dollar, David Is Growth Good for the Poor?, World Bank Working Paper, March 2000
World Bank, Pro Poor Growth in the 1990s   LatAm Virtuous circles

                Bhagwati, J “Anti-Globalization: why?  Stilitz, J. Globalization & Growth

                R. Rajan & Zingales (2003) Saving Capitalism…, book excerpt, Milken Institute Review

 

     Case Study 1.3: Is World Inequality & Poverty rising or falling? Lecture notes

 

Sala-i-Martin (2002) The Disturbing "Rise" of Global Inequality March 12, 2002      

                Ravallion “Have we already Met the Millennium Development Goals?”

                Bhalla Chapters 1-3 and Two Policy Briefs    Webcast: Bhalla vs. Ravallion

                Schultz, T. Paul (1998) Inequality & the Distribution of World Income Yale  Growth Ctr #784

Case Study 1.4: Crises and global imbalances  Aziz & Dunaway (2007) China’s Rebalancing Act

                                WB GEP 2007 Managing the next wave of Globalization  *Overview

 

2.  Three Growth Models: Conditional vs. absolute convergence: Agénor Chapter 11

                *Barro(1997) Chapter 1  *Jones 2nd ed, Chapt 2 & Chapt 3   Problem Set #1A  Jones Chapter 2

                McCallum, B. (1996) Neoclassical vs. Endogenous Growth FRB of Richmond

                Jones Chapts. 2,3  Romer, D. Chapts 1 & 3   Jones Chapter 1; Robelo, S. “Knowledge and Growth

                Pritchett, (1996) Divergence Big Time.  Lucas, R.E.(1988) "Mechanics of Development" JME,22,3-42.

                Solow, R. M. (1956) "Contribution to the Theory of Growth," QJE, 70, 65-94.

                Mankiw, Romer, and Weil, "Empirics of Growth," QJE, May,1992,107:2,407-38.

 

3.  Endogenous Growth I: Migration and Human Capital: *Agénor Chapter 12  A&H ch 1 Answers

                Population, Human Capital & Growth-- Aghion and Howitt (1998) Chapter 1 pp. 22-29

                Jones, C. (1998) Population & Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth,March,Stanford U.

                Kremer (1993) Population & Technical Change: 1 Million BC to 1990, QJE,108, 681-716

                Becker, Murphy and Tamura (1990) Human Capital, Fertility & Growth, JPE, 98:5, s12-37  

 

4. Endogenous Growth II Innovation and technical change (TFP): Jones *Chapters 4-8 *A&H—pp. 35-39

                Romer, Paul M. (1990) Endogenous technological change. JPE 98(5), S71-S102.

                Romer, Paul M,(1986)"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," JPE,94:5,1002-37  

 

5. More poverty traps: Population, Industrialization and Market Structure  

*B-SIM pp. 74-77 Sachs et. al BPEA Ending Africa’s Poverty Trap pp. 121-47.  

                *Krugman (1996) “The Fall and Rise of Development Economics”   Journal Acronyms

                 Murphy, K. Schleifer & Vishny (1989) "Industrialization & the Big Push" JPE, 97:5, 1003-27

                 Robelo, S. (1992) “Growth in open economiesCarnegie-Rochester Public Policy Series, 36,5-46.

                 Krugman, P. (1994) Counter-Counter Revolution In Development Theory, WBER (similar to “Rise &Fall’)

 

6. Empirical Evidence: correlates of growth and some controversies .

              Sim Chapts 11,12  Agénor Chapter 13   Sala-i-Martin 15 Years of Growth Theory

                Levine R. & D. Renelt (1992)"Cross-cty Growth Regressions," AER, Sept,84:2,942-63 [cd]

                *Barro, R. J. (1998) Determinates of Economic Growth Chapt 1. and TEAM pp. 60-69.

                *Sala-i-Martin, J. (1997) “I just ran two million regressions,” AER, May 1997.

                Barro, Robert J., "Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," QJE, May 1991,106, 407-43.

                   Barro, R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin, "Convergence," JPE, 1992, 100 (2), 223,251.

                Rodrik growth regressions and economic policy

http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/policy regressions.pdf

       6.1 Endogenous vs. Exogenous Growth and covergence

                *A&H—pp. 29-35,

*McGratten, E. (1998) “A Defense of AK Growth Models, FRBMQR, Fall,22:4, 13-27

                Jones, C. “Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," QJE, May 1995, 110, 495-525

C:\FordWeb\McGrattenDefenseofAKModels.pdf

       6.2 Case Study: East Asian Growth: A Miracle?  

 Alwyn Young (1995) “The Tyranny of Numbers..” QJE (a “boring and tedious paper”)

 WB Team Report Chapter 5 (CD)    Krugman Myth of Asia’s Miracle   

*Bosworth and Collins (2003)The Empirics of Growth: An Update” BPEA, #2

 William Easterly and Ross Levine (2001) "It's Not Factor Accumulation:

 Stylized Facts and Growth Models" WBER, Volume 15, No. 2

    

II. Promoting Growth: Good policy or good luck?  Journal Acronyms

 

 8. Openness and Growth I : Trade and Growth   Growth in open Economies handout

                

Models: *Basu and Mcleod Terms of Trade Fluctuations and Economic Growth JDE, 1992

               *Sachs, Jeffery and Gallup (1998) Geography and Economic growth 

                 Matzuyama, K, (1992) Agricultural Productivity and Comparative Advantage, JET, 58(2).

 Young, Alyn (1991) Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade, QJE

C:\FordWeb\Matzuyama1992AgricProductivityGrowth.pdf

 Empircal Evidence:  *Rodrik (2007) Real Exchange Rates and Economic Growth 

 *Rodriguez and Rodrik. (2000) Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptics View"

                  *Warner, Andrew (2003) Once More into the Breach. Center for Global Development WP

                    Dollar, et. al. (2002) Trade Growth and Poverty (globalizers classified by trade share and tariff rates)

    Dollar and Kraay (2004) Trade, Growth and Poverty, Economic Journal,114:493,22-49. (final version)

    Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Andrew Warner(1995) “Economic Reform & Global Integration.BPEA (1):1-118.

    Edwards, S, (1997) Openness and Growth: What do We Really Know?  Economic Journal, 

                    Dollar, David (1992) Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really do Grow More

          Rapidly, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 523-43.

                                                       

 

9. Capital Flows, Savings and Growth: Capital Mobility and Growth (Agénor Chapter 16)

Prasad et. al (2007) Paradox of Capital and Kose et. al. (2007) Beyond the Blame Game

Prasad et. al. (2006) Foreign Capital and Economic Growth    Subramanian slides

Henry, Peter Blair Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, evidence and speculation

        JEL December 2007, 887-935.

Lucas, R. (2002) Why doesn’t capital flow from rich to poor countries? (chapter 2)  

Macroeconomics for the 21st Century (chapter 4)

                Carroll and Weil (1994) Savings and Growth a Reinterpretation, CRCS on Public

                                Policy 40, 33-92, North Holland.  Part1  Part2  Part3

     *Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Olivier Jeanne (2002)  

                Benefits of Capital Account Liberalization for Emerging Economies  (2002)

                Capital Flows to Developing Countries: the Allocation Puzzle   (2006)

                Tornell, A, Westerman & Martinez (2004) Financial Liberalization Growth And Crises

                 Edwards, S (2000) Capital Mobility and Economic Performance, NBER, (cdrom)

                De Gregorio (1998)  Financial Integration, Financial Development and Economic Growth (cd)

                World Bank (2001) Capital Flows and Economic Growth, Global Dev. Finance Chapter 3

                 Hausman, Ricardo and Eduardo Fernandez-Arias 2000 “Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?”

 

10. Financial Development, Debt and Growth:  Pattilo et. al (2002) External Debt and Growth

                *Levine, Ross (2003) More on finance and growth: more finance, more growth? Economic Review

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank,  

                *Levine Finance and Growth Slideshow World Bank  Ross Levine at RepEc

                *Levine, Ross (1997) Financial Development and Economic Growth JEL, XXXV,688–726

                Espinosa, M and W. Hunter (1994) Financial Repression & Development, Economic Review

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Sept/Oct.

                King, R. and R. Levine (1993)  "Finance, Entrepreneurship, & Growth"  JME, 32:3,

                Greenwood, J., & B. Jovanovic, "Financial Development & Income Dist," JPE, 5:1, 1990: 1076‑107.

                Bencivenga, V, & B. Smith (1991) "Financial Intermediation & Endog.Growth,"RES, 58,195-209          

                McKinnon, R. (1991) The Order of Economic Liberalization (Johns Hopkins Press).

                McKinnon, Ronald, Money and Capital in Economic Development, Brookings, 1973.

 

 11. Pro-Poor Growth, Redistribution and Political Economy lecture notes

                Aghion & Williamson (2000) Growth Inequality and Globalization, Intro & Chapter 1   

A&W Part I, Inequality and Economic Growth, Aghion JEL Survey.

Barro, 2008 Inequality and Growth Revisited   C:\FordWeb\AghionWilliamson.pdf

                *Alesina and Perotti (1994) The Political Economy of Growth Survey, WBER (photocopy)

                Forbes, Kristen The Relationship between Inequality and Growth, MIT (AER 2001) 

                Benabou, Roland (1997) “Inequality and Growth” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997,

                Rodrik, D. (1997) Democracy and Economic Performance, processed, Harvard Univ.

                Rodrik, Dani (1998) “Growth Collapses” processed, Inequality and Growth Further Reading

 

12. Macroeconomic Stability and Growth

                 Inflation and Growth—Further Reading   (*Barro, Determinants of Growth, Chapter 3)

                *Fischer,S. (1993) The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth, JME, 32,485-512 [cd]

                *Easterly, William. The Lost Decades: Explaining Developing Countries' Stagnation 1980-1998

                  World Bank, Development Research Group, Jan 2000, (forthcoming) presentation

                *Barro, R.(1990) Government Spending w/ Endogenous Growth, JPE,98,103-25[cdrom]

                  Bruno, Michael, & W. Easterly (1998) "Inflation Crises & Long-Run Growth." JME 41:1:3-26

                  DeGregorio, Jose (1993) Inflation, Taxation and L-R Growth, JME, 39,59-84.

                  Easterly, W. and S. Rebelo (1993)  Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth, JME, 32, 417-58.]

                  Easterly, William(1993)  How Much do Distortions affect Growth?  JME, 32, 187-212.    

13. Growth Strategies: Institutions vs. Policies

                        Rodrik (2008) Second Best Institutions  

 Rodrik (2003) Growth Strategies  Rodrik growth regressions and economic policy

                  Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001) Colonial Origins of Comparative Development AER

             AJR (2004) Institutions as The Fundamental Cause of L-R Growth  (2003) Unbundling Institutions

  Rodrik Getting institutions right: a primer  *Johnson et. al. (2006) Levers for Growth, F&D March

  Rajan and Zingales (2006) “Persistence of Underdevelopment: Institutions,

Human capital or constituencies?” NBER Paper #12093   Powerpoint summary

  Glaeser et. al (2004) “Do institutions cause Growth?” NBER 

            *IMF, WEO April 2003 Institutions & Growth Chapt. 3

                  Rodrik, Institutions Rule Finance & Development Issue  Institutions Rule: Longer paper

                  Edison, H. How Strong are the links?   

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2003/06/index.htm

14 Natural Resources and Growth

            Sachs, J and  A. Warner (1995) Natural Resource Abundance and Growth HIID WP #517

 

15. Pro-poor Growth case studies: 

   World Bank, Pro Poor Growth in the 1990s   LatAm Virtuous circles

16. Growth Case Studies

             *Rodrik, D. (2003) Growth Strategies (NBER working paper 10050) Boston, MA

 *Pritchet, Lant (2004) Socialist Star and Democratic…Growth Theory, Vietnam and the Philippines

                                in Rodrik, D. ed. In Search of Prosperity (Princeton University Press). 

                  World Bank (2004) Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform  

                  China and India:  Rosendo’s China Case Study IMF China Case Study  China Trade and Growth

Dreaming with Brics   India’s pattern of Development    (Kochar & Rajan)

                                China In Search of Prosperity   Bosworth/Collins (2007) China vs. India: Growth Account

  Africa:  An African Success Story: Botswana      Africa’s Growth Tragedy (Easterly & Levine)

  

   LatAm:  Latin America in the Rear View Mirror      

   Transition: Long Term Prospects for the Russian Economy, ECB (Elitza Mileva, coauthor)

               

 III. Case Study Data Resources

Maddison Long LatAm Growth and Poverty Case Study Question 2006     

http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp58.pdf

WDI Query file (right click and “save target as”)              South Africa Charts

C:\FordWeb\ECGA6470CaseStudySpring2006.pdf

Case Study Excel Template (use this if possible)  WEO April 2007 Data Set

C:\FordWeb\SouthAfricaCaseStudyCharts.pdf

World Bank GDN Query (no password)  Bourguignon and Morrison Spreadsheet  

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/index.aspx

World Bank WDI Online (password required)  Penn World Tables

C:\FordWeb\BourgioneMorrisonData.xls

World Bank Governance Data Bases  World Business Environment Surve (WBES)

http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/

http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/economics.nsf/Content/ic-wbes

http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/economics.nsf/Content/ic-wbes

                World Bank Doing Business   IFC Doing Business Website

IV. Other Growth and Development Research/data Sources:

            Groningen Growth and Development Centre

NBER Economic Growth Papers   CEPAL (ECLA) online data base

Collins Bosworth Sources of Growth Database updated to 2003

World Bank: Macroeconomics and Growth  World Bank Research on Aid and Growth 

Global Development Network  Harvard CID Data Sets  

Global Development Network Database World Bank Data and Maps 

Dani Rodrik’s Growth Research page Jonathan Temple’s Growth Web Page  

Journal Acronyms

AER: American Economic Review                            JEL: Journal of Economic Literature 

JEG: Journal of Economic Growth                         JEP: Journal of Economic Perspectives

JET: Journal of Economic Theory

JDE: Journal of Development Economics               TEAM: The East Asian Miracle Report 

JME: Journal of Monetary Economics                   JPE: Journal of Political Economy

NBER: National Bureau of Economic Research     RES: Review of Economic Studies

QJE: Quarterly Journal of Economics                  WBER: World Bank Economic Review

Course Description: Why do people living in some countries grow rich, while others remain poor? This course surveys the growth and development literature with an emphasis on long term growth. This year’s special theme is growth miracles and poverty traps—why does per capita income grow at a rapid 5-6% pace—doubling every 12 years or so-- in China, Korea, India and Vietnam while over the past three decades incomes have stagnated or even declined in Argentina, Venezuela,Nigeria and the Philippines for example? Since developing countries as a group overall are enjoying rapid growth relative to the rich or OECD countries, this is an excellent time to ask this question. The

first part of the course explores several key growth models and some empirical evidence on long term growth and convergence.  The second part of the course turns to growth strategies including the role of trade and capital market openness and/or trade promotion in facilitating growth. The recent growth  booms in India and China were associated with both internal reforms and trade liberalization: which  reforms were key to these growth miracles in the making. Finally, we turn to the political  economy of growth, considering a number of recent arguments that make policy itself endogenous, stressing the role of institutions (property rights and legal systems), geography and natural resource  endowments in shaping governance and therefore long term growth performance of many countries, especially in the Tropics.

 

Requirements : The final and midterm exams account for 40% and 25% of the course grade respectively.  

A few problem sets and a country case study contribute the remaining 35%. The project also provides

background material for one of three final exam questions. The project can be country case study, or a

cross country comparison that is prepared in advance but written as an essay during the final exam. After

the midterm, a detailed description of the project is distributed. Students are encouraged to present a brief

15 minute summary of their case study to the class near the end of the term.

 

13. Geography, Institutions, Natural Resources

     *IMF, WEO April 2003 Institutions & Growth Chapt. 3  Rodik *Getting institutions right: a primer

       Rodrik, Institutions Rule Finance & Development Issue  Institutions Rule: Longer paper

       Edison, H. How Strong are the links?   

       Sachs, J and  A. Warner (1995) Natural Resource Abundance and Growth HIID WP #517

 

14. Case Study Resources

  *Pritchet, Lant (2004) Socialist Star and Democratic…Growth Theory, Vietnam and the Philippines

            in Rodrik, D. ed. In Search of Prosperity (Princeton University Press). 

  *Rodrik, D. (2003) Growth Strategies (NBER working paper 10050) Boston, MA

   Radelet, et.al. (2003) MCA country selection process (CGD web site)

 

 Journal Acronyms

AER: American Economic Review                          JEL: Journal of Economic Literature 

JEG: Journal of Economic Growth                        JEP: Journal of Economic Perspectives

JDE: Journal of Development Economics               TEAM: The East Asian Miracle Report 

JME: Journal of Monetary Economics                  JPE: Journal of Political Economy

NBER: National Bureau of Economic Research             RES: Review of Economic Studies

QJE: Quarterly Journal of Economics                  WBER: World Bank Economic Review

 

III. Growth and Development Research/data Sources:

 

World Bank: Macroeconomics and Growth

 

World Bank Research on Aid and Growth

Global Development Network

Harvard CID Data Sets

Global Development Network Database

World Bank Data and Maps

Dani Rodrik’s Growth Research page

Jonathan Temple’s Growth Web Page

  

 IV. Case Study Description and Resource Materials

Case Study Question  WDI Query